A 10-point tool for human rights impacts, risk assessments, and responses during floods and other national disasters in Kenya

A policy brief, published for immediate action on September 28, 2026

INTRODUCTION

Strong El Niño conditions, together with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are usually linked to increased rainfall in Eastern Africa. This means countries including Somalia, Eastern and Southern Ethiopia, Northern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi are likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions. Similar conditions in 1997 and 2019 were followed by widespread and severe flooding across the region, with significant impacts on communities[1]. Heavy El Niño rains are projected to hit Kenya from late September through December 2026, bringing above-average rainfall and a substantial risk of severe flooding across approximately 80 per cent of the country. This heavy rain comes after widespread flooding in Kenya during the March-May 2026 long rains. By May 3 that year, flooding had affected 27 counties, claimed 122 lives, and affected 42,259 people. Roads, bridges, water systems and power infrastructure were damaged, disrupting access to essential services and increasing the risk of water-borne diseases[2].  All 47 counties are at risk, with high-intensity rainfall concentrated in Central, Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin, and Western Kenya.

Hotspot counties include Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Mombasa, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita-Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Vihiga, as well as much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit. Turkana is forecast to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, while parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are also expected to record near-average rainfall with a tendency towards above-average amounts[3].

Section 2 of the Environmental Management and Coordination Act sets out the precautionary principle. It requires the government to ensure that, where there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, a lack of full scientific certainty is not used as a reason to postpone cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. Many agencies, including the National Disaster Response Centre, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Ministry of Health, are organizing responses to risks and interventions within their respective sectors and mandates. Drawing on this and our previous experience between October 2019 and April 2020, and from March to June 2024, when floods and the resulting state and non-state interventions led to unprecedented injustices—which we confronted at critical moments through timely documentation, legacy, policy, and humanitarian actions—the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) is planning ahead for possible human rights impacts, risks, and interventions. This is not intended to cause panic, but to prepare for the worst and intervene as effectively as possible within our constitutional and transnational obligations.

ANTICIPATED HUMAN RIGHTS IMPACTS AND RISKS FOR ACTION

 Injuries, loss of lives, properties, and livelihoods: These are highly expected owing to massive floods, especially within the key hot spots in the country. In 2024, the following counties experienced the perennial and deadly impact of the floods: Nairobi, Kiambu, Kisumu, Busia, Homa Bay, Baringo, Nakuru, Tana River, and Kilifi. According to the report of Human Rights Watch dated May 2, 2024, the floods had, as of that day, left at least 170 people dead, displaced more than 200,000, destroyed property, infrastructure, and livelihoods across the country, and exacerbated socioeconomic vulnerabilities[4]. At around 7:30 p.m. on May 9, 2018, the human-made dam at the vast Patel Coffee Estates in Solai, Nakuru, burst its banks after heavy rains. In this Solai Dam tragedy, 190 million litres of water gushed through settlements, leaving gruesome deaths, horrific physical, mental, and emotional injuries, massive property destruction, and an unprecedented number of people displaced[5]. In another incident, the Mai Mahiu tragedy displaced more than 130,000 people, with many taking shelter in schools; 315 people died, 73 of whom were children, and 38 people are still missing. The disaster was caused by a burst in a blocked railway tunnel near the town of Old Kijabe[6]. A day after the Old Kijabe River burst its banks, sweeping away hundreds of people, livestock, and personal belongings, it felt like a bad dream. Overturned vehicles, destroyed homes, uprooted trees, scattered boulders, and distraught faces painted a grim picture of destruction and loss.[7] This happens even though Articles 26, 28, 40 and 43 of the constitution protect the rights to life, human dignity, property and adequate housing, respectively.

Police excesses and shrinking of civic space: The regime tends to conduct forced evictions and restrains people from resisting the abuse, as witnessed within the informal settlements in 2020 and 2024. In May 2024, for instance, police raided the Mathare Social Justice Centre and Ghetto Foundation offices, arresting 27 human rights defenders. The activists had gathered to protest the eviction of residents without being provided alternative housing and to address the government's neglect and forced displacement of families who had already endured the devastation of recent floods. Authorities filed trumped-up charges against the group, falsely accusing them of inciting violence[8]. While Article 37 protects the freedom of assembly, demonstration, picketing and petition, Article 238(1)(b) goes further to provide that national security shall be pursued in compliance with the law and with the utmost respect for the rule of law, democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms. Thus, there is no justification for police injustices.

Discriminatory practices and decisions: Those from informal areas tend to be punitively targeted, while those living in high-end estates in urban centres remain highly protected. A case in point was in May 2024, when even before the Kenya government’s 24-hour deadline had elapsed, and without sufficient notice or proper consultation, bulldozers descended on the Mukuru Kwa Reuben and Kiamaiko areas in Nairobi in a case of forced and arbitrary eviction that left thousands of locals homeless. Yet, more affluent neighbourhoods that flooded even more and sat on riparian land were left untouched, highlighting a selective, punitive, and discriminatory expedition[9]. Displaced individuals were living in tents despite harsh weather, and they alleged that government assistance during the floods primarily benefited those with connections to aid programs[10].  This violates Article 27 of the Constitution, which guarantees equality and freedom from discrimination. For this reason, Articles 53, 54, 55, 54,55,56 and 57 of the Constitution provide children, persons with disabilities, youth, minorities and marginalised groups, and older members of society with additional safeguards in the governance of public affairs.

 Exposures to marginalized and disadvantaged groups: Related to the above, floods have significant and often devastating effects on vulnerable populations, exacerbating existing inequalities and disproportionately affecting certain groups. These include children, persons with disabilities, youth, minorities and marginalised groups, and older members of society, as stipulated respectively under Articles 53, 54, 55, 56 and 57 of the Constitution. Vulnerable populations, such as people with disabilities, older people, and those living in poverty, face a higher risk of injury or death during a flood. In the aforementioned “Impact of 2024 Deadly Floods on Schools”[11] survey, a specific finding was that “schools experienced a nine per cent decrease in overall student population, with female students and those with special needs disproportionately affected”[12].

Rights to health and water violations: As noted by WHO in its latest health risk mapping on Kenya: “flooding can contaminate drinking-water sources and sanitation systems, increasing the risk of cholera, typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A, and other diarrhoeal diseases. It can also make it harder for people to reach health facilities, access medicines, and continue routine health services[13]”. Article 43(1)(a) and (d) of the Constitution safeguards the rights to the highest attainable standard of health and to clean, safe water in adequate quantities. Accordingly, the Ministry of Health should develop a structured health-sector plan to guide the country’s preparedness for and response to potential health risks associated with El Niño. The plan should bring together the national government and the 47 county governments, emergency agencies, humanitarian organisations, and development partners[14].

 Adverse effects on the education sector: Floods lead to massive disruption of education for thousands of students. A survey on the “Impact of 2024 Deadly Floods on Schools”[15]  by KHRC and Elimu Bora Working Group (EBWG) painted a troubling picture of the post-flood educational landscape. More than 62 primary schools were submerged, putting 15,000 students at risk of missing school, 34 cases of cholera were reported along the Tana River, and over 20,000 toilets were damaged by the floods. This is a gross affront to Article 43(1)(f) that protects the right to education. El Niño will cause learning disruptions. The disaster preparedness team maps 7,000 schools at risk of being swept away, mainly those previously affected by rain, which will disrupt the primary and secondary schools’ national examinations. Some learners may be forced to travel long distances or sit their examinations in unfamiliar centres if schools and examination centres are not relocated. Thus, the government should identify vulnerable schools and examination centres, plan alternative routes, and move emergency preparations ahead of the first major storms[16]. National disaster operations have warned against the use of schools as IDP camps[17]. Thus, the government will be in contravention of Article 43(1)(f) of the Constitution, which stipulates that every person has the right to education, and also in contravention of Article 53(2), which stipulates that every child has a right to free and compulsory basic education.

 The right to information: The public and stakeholders should receive timely, credible information about how the excess rains may affect their lives and rights, so they can make informed decisions, including taking response actions. Article 35 provides that every citizen has the right of access to (a) information held by the State; and (b) information held by another person and required for the exercise or protection of any right or fundamental freedom. Many people are exposed to risk, and mistakes occur, because of gaps in this area. The lack of accurate information and early warnings for downstream residents was one of the most critical failures highlighted after the Solai Dam tragedy. This is why, every season, residents of Garissa and Tana River counties closely follow flood alerts in the media and prepare to move to higher ground before floods strike their villages[18].

Detrimental environmental and agricultural effects: El Niño is strengthening in a world that is already hotter, raising the risk of drought, floods, and crop losses across some of the world’s most important food-producing regions. But unlike many disasters, this one can be seen coming. UN experts say the months ahead offer countries a chance not only to protect the next harvest and our food security, but to prepare for a more unpredictable climate in the long run[19]. Negative environmental effects include soil and bank erosion, bed erosion, siltation, and landslides. It can damage vegetation, and pollutants carried by flood water can impact water quality, habitats and flora and fauna[20]. This derails the realization of the promises of Article 42, which guarantees the right to a clean and healthy environment. Moreover, floods cause crop damage and loss, soil erosion and nutrients leaching, livestock mortality and diseases, which have far-reaching effects on food security and sovereignty. This undermines the gains of Article 43 (1) (c), which provides that every person has the right to be free from hunger and to have adequate food of acceptable quality.

Corruption and misuse of state resources: Floods and related disasters come with immense emergency and humanitarian support from the state and non-state actors, including the public. In September 2026, Kenya secured Sh51.8 billion (US$400 million) from the World Bank through its Rapid Response Option[21]. The financing covers El Niño disruptions, the regional Ebola outbreak, and high energy costs, with funds anticipated within six weeks. The regime had sought an estimated Sh77.5 billion emergency loan in June through the rapid response option; however, the disbursement was delayed due to a lack of detail in the spending plans[22]. The crisis and multi-level nature of interventions create opportunities for corruption and selective access by the beneficiaries. Article 73(1)(c) expects among others, selfless service based solely on the public interest, demonstrated by (i) honesty in the execution of public duties, and (ii) the declaration of any personal interest that may conflict with public duties; (d) accountability to the public for decisions and actions; and (e) discipline and commitment in service to the people.

 Implications on infrastructure: Infrastructure vulnerability to floods is a cause for concern in Kenya, for it destroys roads, communication, buildings, and social amenities, which are critical in the enjoyment of the constitutional rights and freedoms highlighted above[23]. Under the international human rights law, State parties have obligations to fulfil rights, which means taking positive actions to facilitate, provide, and promote the realisation of basic human rights[24]. Roads and rail have a severe risk of aquaplaning, localized flooding, waterlogging, and structural damage to bridges and culverts. Aircraft operations might face hazards during landing, take-off, and refuelling, ferries and marine transportation face high waves and intense winds.[25]

CALL FOR ACTION

The above human rights risks and obligations call for the following immediate actions.

  1. Create and sustain public awareness about this novel framework of human rights-based analysis and action on floods and related climate justice crisis.
  2. Utilize the framework to undertake human rights monitoring and documentation of the situation between now and January 2027. Fact-finding missions and topical studies on the prevalence of floods and their human rights implications are critical.
  3. Initiate timely actions to stop the adverse human rights effects of floods through engagements with the media and the national and transnational justice mechanisms[26]. KHRC-led litigation, as witnessed in the 2018 Solai Dam tragedy, and the 2024 Mai Mahiu floods, have been effective[27].
  4. Advance policy reforms to ensure the national and county governments effect their prevention, protection, and mitigation responsibilities. We will push for a more transformative, rights based and people centred revisions of the National Disaster and other sectoral policies.
  5. Where possible, provide rights based humanitarian and psychosocial supports to victims and survivors.

Finally, we concur with Amnesty International Kenya’s observation that: “The human cost of floods cannot be measured only by the number of people who die. It is measured by the number extent to which deaths, displacement and suffering could have been prevented or reduced through timely and effective preparedness and response”[28].

[1] https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding;

[2]Ibid 2

[3] https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-08-27-el-nino-rains-put-schools-exams-at-risk

[4] https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/05/02/kenya-floods-threaten-marginalized-people;

[5] chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://khrc.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Damned-Dam-Exposing-Corporate-and-State-impunity-in-the-Solai-tragedy.pdf.

[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68896456

[7] https://newsroom.amref.org/blog/2024/06/mai-mahiu-tragedy-stories-of-loss-and-resilience/

 

[8] https://khrc.or.ke/press-release/2024-a-year-of-blatant-state-repression-through-regime-policing/;

[9] https://www.hic-net.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Nairobi-floods-Halt-arbitrary-evictions-disguised-as-evacuation-1.pdf.

[10] https://www.amnestykenya.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Human-in-my-ID-Q-2-Discimination-Index.pdf

[11] https://khrc.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/The-impact-of-2024-floods-on-schools-final.pdf

[12] https://khrc.or.ke/press-release/15000-students-missed-school-due-to-deadly-floods-new-report-shows/;

[13] https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding;

[14] https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding

[15] Ibid12

[16] https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-08-27-el-nino-rains-put-schools-exams-at-risk

[17] https://www.facebook.com/CitizenTVKe/videos/el-ni%C3%B1o-learning-disruptionsdisaster-team-maps-7000-schools-at-riskschools-were-/1124914996672186/

 

[18] https://www.kbc.co.ke/tales-of-suffering-garissa-tana-river-residents-endure-perennial-floods/;

[19] https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/09/1168404

[20] https://www.floodinfo.ie/about_frm/impacts_of_flooding/;

[21][21] https://www.theonlinekenyan.com/daily/2026-09-11/kenya-secures-ksh51-billion-world-bank-loan-for-el-ni-o-preparedness

[22] https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/why-world-bank-has-delayed-sh78bn-emergency-loan-to-kenya-5525808

[23] https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-22-el-nino-preparedness-is-nairobi-ready

[24] https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-and-mechanisms/international-human-rights-law

[25] https://nation.africa/kenya/climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-paradox-kenya-faces-flood-threats-even-as-rains-promise-food-security-5580878

[26] https://khrc.or.ke/news/khrcs-statement-at-81st-ordinary-session-of-achpr/;

[27] https://khrc.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Duty-to-Protect-Obligation-to-Redress-The-Legal-Issues-Arising-From-the-Solai-Dam-Tragedy.pdf; https://khrc.or.ke/case/kenyan-government-officials-sued-over-fatal-flooding/;

[28] https://www.amnestykenya.org/the-real-test-of-flood-preparedness-is-not-the-forecast-it-is-the-lives-saved/;